Alibaba · Expected
Qwen 4 release date
Window
Nov 8 – Dec 2
Earliest
Nov 8
Best guess
Nov 12
Latest
Dec 2
What we know
Rumored for Apsara (Sep 22–24, Hangzhou); the agenda does not name it. Qwen3.8-Flash-Next shipped Aug 26 as an early preview of the Qwen4 architecture.
Spec
- Params
- Not stated
- Active
- Not stated
- Context
- Not stated
- Weights
- Reported open
- Modality
- omni
- Codename
- Not stated
Why this date
- Where this comes from100
100% evidence, 0% cadence.
- Slip history1
Missed 1 previously stated date (2026-09-23). Estimate pushed 4 days later and widened.
- Window tightness43
80% window spans 24 days (σ ≈ 15.2d).
- Corroboration68
5 distinct sources, worth 2.9 weighted. Aggregator reposts count for little.
- Source authority53
Strongest source is reddit (press); average claim precision 85%.
The signal score is our own weighting of the evidence above. It is not a calibrated probability, and nothing here has been scored against real outcomes yet. Treat “Mixed” as the honest summary and the number as its arithmetic.
Every claim
7 from 5 sources- Reddit (r/LocalLLaMA, r/singularity)RepostNov 7
A Reddit user says Qwen 4 is about to be released but gives no date, and the post itself is unsourced.
- Reddit (r/LocalLLaMA, r/singularity)PressNov 6
A post relays an unnamed Alibaba presenter saying Qwen 4 would be released this week, which did not happen.
- Reddit (r/LocalLLaMA, r/singularity)RepostNov 6
A Reddit post says Qwen4 is expected this week, with no named source for the timing.
- Operator researchPressSep 12
Qwen 4 is rumored for the Apsara Conference, held Sep 22-24 in Hangzhou; the published agenda does not name it.
- Tech2WildRepostJul 11
Rumors of Qwen 3.8 in August and Qwen 4 in September?
- AiBattleInsiderJul 7
Qwen 4 is rumored to be released at the upcoming Apsara Conference in September. Qwen 2.5 was unveiled at the 2024 Apsara Conference; at the 2025 Apsara Conference, Alibaba announced Qwen3-Max, Qwen3-VL, and Qwen3-Omni.
- gpuhellInsiderJul 7
Alibaba's planning to drop Qwen4 at the APSARA Conference, looks like it's landing in September.