Next Qwen Plus (3.8+) release date

Window

Nov 8 – Dec 26

Why this date

• Where this comes from99

  1% cadence, 99% market.

• Window tightness34

  80% window spans 48 days (σ ≈ 19.4d).

• Corroboration25

  1 distinct source, worth 0.7 weighted. Aggregator reposts count for little.

• Source authority0

  No live dated claims; the date comes from the prediction market and shipping cadence.

The signal score is our own weighting of the evidence above. It is not a calibrated probability, and nothing here has been scored against real outcomes yet. Treat “Thin” as the honest summary and the number as its arithmetic.