Grok 5 release date

Window

Nov 8, 2026 – Mar 3, 2027

Why this date

Grok 4.x has shipped every 70 days on average, and it’s been 48 days.

• Activity without a date2

  Builds, arena entries or version strings are visible but nobody has named a date. Baseline pulled 2% earlier; the window stays wide.

• Market floor54

  The prediction market prices release by 2026-12-31 below 50%, so its median falls after that date. Estimate held to after it.

• Window tightness7

  80% window spans 115 days (σ ≈ 47.4d).

• Corroboration25

  1 distinct source, worth 0.7 weighted. Aggregator reposts count for little.

• Source authority0

  No live dated claims; the date comes from shipping cadence.

The signal score is our own weighting of the evidence above. It is not a calibrated probability, and nothing here has been scored against real outcomes yet. Treat “Thin” as the honest summary and the number as its arithmetic.