xAI · Rumored

Grok 4.8 release date

Projected name. No report has named this version yet; it follows the lab's own numbering, and changes once reports agree on a name.

Window

Nov 8 – Dec 14

Earliest

Nov 8

Best guess

Nov 25

Latest

Dec 14

Thinin 17 dayssignal 29/100

Why this date

Grok 4.x has shipped every 70 days on average, and it’s been 48 days.

Where this comes from90
10% cadence, 90% market.
Window tightness44
80% window spans 36 days (σ ≈ 14.8d).
Corroboration25
1 distinct source, worth 0.7 weighted. Aggregator reposts count for little.
Source authority0
No live dated claims; the date comes from the prediction market and shipping cadence.

The signal score is our own weighting of the evidence above. It is not a calibrated probability, and nothing here has been scored against real outcomes yet. Treat “Thin” as the honest summary and the number as its arithmetic.

Every claim

1 from 1 source

PolymarketBetting marketNov 4
Polymarket, “Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by...?”: 60% by Nov 30. $11K traded.
no date givenno datesource