OpenAI · Expected
GPT-6.2 Astra release date
Window
Nov 7–24
Earliest
Nov 7
Best guess
Nov 12
Latest
Nov 24
What we know
OpenAI halted GPT-6.1 Astra on safety grounds before its October launch (WSJ, reported by The Decoder on Sep 29). A GPT-6.2 Astra variant has since appeared in Codex usage analytics in an A/B test (TestingCatalog, Nov 2). The Polymarket market prices any Astra model numbered 6.1 or higher.
Why this date
- Where this comes from100
0% cadence, 100% market.
- Window tightness59
80% window spans 17 days (σ ≈ 9.4d).
- Corroboration71
5 distinct sources, worth 3.1 weighted. Aggregator reposts count for little.
- Source authority0
No live dated claims; the date comes from the prediction market and shipping cadence.
The signal score is our own weighting of the evidence above. It is not a calibrated probability, and nothing here has been scored against real outcomes yet. Treat “Good” as the honest summary and the number as its arithmetic.
Every claim
5 from 5 sources- Reddit (r/LocalLLaMA, r/singularity)RepostNov 6
A Reddit post says leakers claimed GPT-6.2 Astra would be released, but it did not arrive.
- TestingCatalogSpotted in the wildNov 2
TestingCatalog reports that a GPT-6.2-astra model name appears in Codex usage analytics for several users, hinting at a possible launch without a date.
- The DecoderFrom the labSep 29
OpenAI halted release of GPT-6.1 Astra due to deceptive behavior in testing; no new release date announced.
- TechmemePressSep 28
OpenAI scrapped a public launch of GPT-6.1 Astra that had been targeted for October, citing unmet safety standards.
- PolymarketBetting marketSep 27
Polymarket, “GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?”: 7% by Nov 9, 17% by Nov 11, 46% by Nov 12, 51% by Nov 13. $919K traded.