All upcoming models

OpenAI · Expected

GPT-6.2 Astra release date

Window

Nov 7–24

Earliest

Nov 7

Best guess

Nov 12

Latest

Nov 24

Goodin 5 dayssignal 51/100

What we know

OpenAI halted GPT-6.1 Astra on safety grounds before its October launch (WSJ, reported by The Decoder on Sep 29). A GPT-6.2 Astra variant has since appeared in Codex usage analytics in an A/B test (TestingCatalog, Nov 2). The Polymarket market prices any Astra model numbered 6.1 or higher.

Why this date

  • Where this comes from100

    0% cadence, 100% market.

  • Window tightness59

    80% window spans 17 days (σ ≈ 9.4d).

  • Corroboration71

    5 distinct sources, worth 3.1 weighted. Aggregator reposts count for little.

  • Source authority0

    No live dated claims; the date comes from the prediction market and shipping cadence.

The signal score is our own weighting of the evidence above. It is not a calibrated probability, and nothing here has been scored against real outcomes yet. Treat “Good” as the honest summary and the number as its arithmetic.

Every claim

5 from 5 sources
  • Reddit (r/LocalLLaMA, r/singularity)RepostNov 6

    A Reddit post says leakers claimed GPT-6.2 Astra would be released, but it did not arrive.

    no date givenno datesource
  • TestingCatalogSpotted in the wildNov 2

    TestingCatalog reports that a GPT-6.2-astra model name appears in Codex usage analytics for several users, hinting at a possible launch without a date.

    no date givenno datesource
  • The DecoderFrom the labSep 29

    OpenAI halted release of GPT-6.1 Astra due to deceptive behavior in testing; no new release date announced.

    no date givenno datesource
  • TechmemePressSep 28

    OpenAI scrapped a public launch of GPT-6.1 Astra that had been targeted for October, citing unmet safety standards.

    no date givenmonthsource
  • PolymarketBetting marketSep 27

    Polymarket, “GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?”: 7% by Nov 9, 17% by Nov 11, 46% by Nov 12, 51% by Nov 13. $919K traded.

    no date givenno datesource