OpenAI · Expected
GPT-6.1 Luna release date
Projected name. No report has named this version yet; it follows the lab's own numbering, and changes once reports agree on a name.
Window
Nov 13–19
Earliest
Nov 13
Best guess
Nov 16
Latest
Nov 19
Why this date
GPT Luna has shipped every 75 days on average, and it’s been 47 days.
- Where this comes from100
0% cadence, 100% market.
- Window tightness89
80% window spans 5 days (σ ≈ 2.0d).
- Corroboration25
1 distinct source, worth 0.7 weighted. Aggregator reposts count for little.
- Source authority0
No live dated claims; the date comes from the prediction market and shipping cadence.
The signal score is our own weighting of the evidence above. It is not a calibrated probability, and nothing here has been scored against real outcomes yet. Treat “Mixed” as the honest summary and the number as its arithmetic.
Every claim
1 from 1 source- PolymarketBetting marketNov 4
Polymarket, “Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by...?”: 48% by Nov 15, 72% by Nov 30, 77% by Dec 31. $10K traded.