Google DeepMind · Expected

Gemini 4 Carbon release date

Window

Nov 8–17

Earliest

Nov 8

Best guess

Nov 10

Latest

Nov 17

Goodin 2 dayssignal 63/100

Why this date

Gemini Pro has shipped every 165 days on average, and it’s been 26 days.

Announced, not public0
Reported as launched on 2026-10-28, but only to a limited group. This is a forecast for public access.
Window tightness74
80% window spans 9 days (σ ≈ 5.5d).
Corroboration85
7 distinct sources, worth 4.8 weighted. Aggregator reposts count for little.
Source authority0
No live dated claims; the date comes from the prediction market and shipping cadence.

The signal score is our own weighting of the evidence above. It is not a calibrated probability, and nothing here has been scored against real outcomes yet. Treat “Good” as the honest summary and the number as its arithmetic.

Every claim

10 from 7 sources

9to5Google GeminiPressNov 2
Article describes Google's Gemini 4 Carbon as a new frontier model that trails Claude on a benchmark but offers better value, with no release date given.
no date givenno datesource
TechmemeRepostOct 29
Techmeme relays VentureBeat reporting that Google announced Gemini 4 Carbon today, rolling it out to selected cybersecurity defenders via Fairwind.
points at Oct 28exact datesource
9to5Google GeminiPressOct 28
9to5Google reports Google announced Gemini 4 Carbon as its next frontier model, with gains in coding and agentic tasks.
points at Oct 28exact datesource
Google Models & ResearchFrom the labOct 28
Google's blog introduces Gemini 4 Carbon as its next frontier model, with state-of-the-art cybersecurity and long-horizon capabilities, but gives no release date.
no date givenno datesource
TechmemePressOct 28
Techmeme relays Google executive Koray Kavukcuoglu's announcement that Google has unveiled Gemini 4 Carbon, ranked first on Artificial Analysis' Intelligence Index.
points at Oct 28exact datesource
The DecoderPressOct 28
The Decoder reports Google DeepMind is releasing Gemini 4 Carbon, initially limited to selected security experts, two weeks after Gemini 4 Argon.
points at Oct 28exact datesource
The Verge AIPressOct 28
The Verge reports Google released Gemini 4 Carbon in a Wednesday announcement, citing its top placement on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v5.0.
points at Oct 28exact datesource
TestingCatalogPressOct 28
TestingCatalog reports Google unveiled Gemini 4 Carbon for cyber defenders, with a phased rollout to trusted defenders before wider access, but gives no specific date.
no date givenno datesource
PolymarketBetting marketOct 27
Polymarket, “Gemini Carbon released by...?”: 3% by Nov 9, 49% by Nov 10, 69% by Nov 11, 80% by Nov 13. $273K traded.
no date givenno datesource
TestingCatalogRepostOct 23
Reportedly in early partner access and on LMArena ahead of public release, with no release date given.
no date givenno datesource