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Google DeepMind · Slipped

Gemini 3.5 Pro release date

Window

Nov 8, 2026 – Apr 7, 2027

Earliest

Nov 8

Best guess

Jan 1

Latest

Apr 7

Thinin 54 dayssignal 28/100

What we know

Announced at I/O on May 19 and still unreleased. Google DeepMind lists it ‘coming soon’ and says it is testing with partners; no model ID, price or launch entry exists.

Spec

Params
Not stated
Active
Not stated
Context
Not stated
Weights
Not stated
Modality
omni
Codename
Not stated

Why this date

Gemini Pro has shipped every 165 days on average, and it’s been 26 days.

  • Where this comes from92

    92% evidence, 8% cadence.

  • Slip history3

    Missed 3 previously stated dates (2026-06-30, 2026-07-17, 2026-08-12). Estimate pushed 12 days later and widened.

  • Market floor54

    The prediction market prices release by 2026-12-31 below 50%, so its median falls after that date. Estimate held to after it.

  • Window tightness2

    80% window spans 150 days (σ ≈ 74.9d).

  • Corroboration78

    7 distinct sources, worth 3.8 weighted. Aggregator reposts count for little.

  • Source authority70

    Strongest source is @polypredictionx (market); average claim precision 97%.

The signal score is our own weighting of the evidence above. It is not a calibrated probability, and nothing here has been scored against real outcomes yet. Treat “Thin” as the honest summary and the number as its arithmetic.

Every claim

7 from 7 sources
  • PolymarketBetting marketSep 14

    Polymarket, “Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?”: 8% by Nov 30, 15% by Dec 31. $1.7M traded.

    no date givenno datesource
  • Jorai LaurenceoInsiderAug 6

    Google is expected to launch Gemini 3.5 Pro by August 12. Leaked benchmarks show it outperforming Claude Opus 5 across almost every metric.

    points at Aug 12exact datesource
  • Stats WireRepostAug 6

    Gemini 3.5 is not releasing today. By August 12.

    points at Aug 12exact datesource
  • David HendricksonRepostAug 3

    So rumor is Gemini 3.5 Pro arrives around August 12th, 2026.

    points at Aug 12exact datesource
  • renewableSpotted in the wildJul 31

    Gemini 3.5 Pro will be released in TWO WEEKS. Polymarket gives a 60% chance of this; the model has already appeared for 44 minutes in Arena. The release is likely August 11-13.

    points at Aug 12weekmarket: 60%source
  • Kanji LowInsiderJul 31

    Google promised its most powerful AI model in May. Then June. Then July 17. It's now August tomorrow and Gemini 3.5 Pro still isn't here.

    no date givenno datesource
  • Poly PredictionBetting marketJul 29

    The market gives 88% odds Google announces a new flagship Gemini model at the August 12 event, but the delayed Gemini 3.5 Pro still hasn't launched.

    points at Aug 12exact datemarket: 88%source