Anthropic · Rumored

Claude Opus 5.6 release date

Projected name. No report has named this version yet; it follows the lab's own numbering, and changes once reports agree on a name.

Window

Nov 8 – Dec 16

Earliest

Nov 8

Best guess

Nov 26

Latest

Dec 16

Thinin 18 dayssignal 27/100

Why this date

Claude Opus has shipped every 151 days on average, and it’s been 47 days.

Where this comes from98
2% cadence, 98% market.
Window tightness42
80% window spans 38 days (σ ≈ 15.4d).
Corroboration25
1 distinct source, worth 0.7 weighted. Aggregator reposts count for little.
Source authority0
No live dated claims; the date comes from the prediction market and shipping cadence.

The signal score is our own weighting of the evidence above. It is not a calibrated probability, and nothing here has been scored against real outcomes yet. Treat “Thin” as the honest summary and the number as its arithmetic.

Every claim

1 from 1 source

PolymarketBetting marketOct 17
Polymarket, “Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by...?”: 62% by Nov 30, 89% by Dec 31. $16K traded.
no date givenno datesource